Indices clock record highs during week; if Nifty50 sustains above 16,000-levels, upside move will continue

11:41 AM Jul 17, 2021 | Sumeet Bagadia

Overall, the bulls continued in action throughout the week as the benchmark opened positively and climbed higher for a week, making a new record high at 15962 levels on the last trading day of the week. The nifty50 index has gained more than 1.2 percent while bank Nifty increased by 2 percent on a weekly basis to close at 35751.80 levels. All the sectoral indices performed well during the week, Nifty Realty gained 9 percent followed by capital goods 3 percent, metal 3 percent and IT 3 percent gains, whereas Nifty Media and oil and gas, power showed some profit booking.

On the stock front, Wipro, Larsen and Ultra Cements were the top gainers while Eicher Motors, BPCL, Maruti were the top laggards for a week.


Technically, the Nifty index has given prior resistance breakout and is showing good strength on the chart, which indicates a continued upward movement in the near term. Moreover, the index has been trading in Higher Highs & Higher Lows formation, which suggests bullish strength in the counter. Furthermore, an indicator MACD & Stochastic is showing positive crossover on the daily chart, which points out a bullish presence for the upcoming days.


For the coming week, If Nifty 50 sustains above 16,000 levels, the upside move will be continued till 16,150/16,200 levels while on the downside, support is shifted up to 15,800 levels.


TechM has gained more than 4 percent in a week to close at 1102.90 levels. The stock has given a breakout on the daily chart, which indicates bullish strength for the near term. Moreover, the stock has sustained above Ichimoku Cloud formation, which suggests bullish movement for the long term. Spurt in volume activities & positive crossover in MACD indicator point to an upward move in the counter. So based on the above structure, we are recommending a long view for the upcoming session.


On a weekly chart, the stock has given a breakout of its prior resistance at 1547 and made a high at 1579.30 on a weekly basis with a gain of 4.8 percent. The stock has also given a breakout of Wedge formation and sustained above it, which indicates bullish momentum in the counter. Moreover, the prices have been trading above 100 & 50 Days SMA, which supports the bullish trend. A momentum indicator RSI & MACD suggested a bullish presence for the near term. So based on the above structure, we are expecting more upside in the upcoming sessions.


Wipro has closed at 577.75 in today's trading sessions. The stock has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. The stock has been continuously bought in major quantities which are seen in the volume indicator which narrates a high demand for the stock. Wipro has settled above the bullish clouds of the Ichimoku Indicator which indicates a further bullish trend. The Money Flow Index rose from 44 levels and settled at 73 levels, which indicates a strong upside momentum. The stock has a support of 546 while it has resistance at its lifetime high of 589.15 levels. Thus, the stock looks very strong on the counter, and further upside can be seen in the short term.


LT has given a monthly breakout and made a new lifetime high on Friday's trading session. The stock has closed above the super trend indicator, which indicates a strong trend on the upside. The Parabolic SAR dots have formed under the candles, which indicates a further bullish view for the stock. The RSI has closed in the overbuying zone indicating a strong demand for the stock. The stock has a support at 1530 levels while resistance lies at the lifetime high at 1625 levels. Overall, the stock has very strong momentum for further upwards move.


ULTRACEMCO has given a weekly breakout of 7056 forming a strong Bullish Marubozu candle on weekly charts. The stock has settled above the convergence lines as well as above the bullish clouds of the Ichimoku Indicator, which indicates a further upside move. The Momentum Indicator is strongly pointing straight in the upward direction, which indicates a strong journey for the stock towards the north. The stochastic has also given a positive crossover in the overbuying zone making the stock strong for further movement. The stock has its closest support at 7050 while having resistance at its lifetime high of 7360 levels. Clubbing the above perspective, the stock seems to be very strong for the short term.


On the daily chart, BPCL has been falling continuously for the last couple of days. In addition, the price has also been trading below the 50 Exponential Moving Averages, which point out a negative trend for the medium term. Moreover, the trend indicator Parabolic SAR is also supportive for the short position. However, on an hourly chart, a momentum indicator RSI (14) is at an oversold zone and witnessed divergences, which indicates a slight recovery in the counter. On the downside, there is a support at around 430 while resistance comes at 470 levels.


On a daily chart, Maruti has reversed from the prior supply zone and settled below the 21 Exponential Moving Averages, which supports the downward trend. In addition, the price has shifted below the middle band of the Bollinger formation, which also supports the bearish momentum. Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) reading is below 50 levels, which suggests a bearish move for the near term. On the downside, the stock has a support at 7,050 while resistance is at 7,550 levels.


Eicher motors have given a breakdown of Symmetrical Triangle Pattern with large Bearish Engulfing candlesticks pattern, which indicates bearish movement in the near future. In addition, the price has settled below 21 Exponential Moving Averages, which confirms bearish momentum in the near future. However, on an hourly chart, an oscillator Stochastic RSI suggested a positive crossover, which indicates a slight recovery in the counter. On the downside, the stock may find support at around 2470 while resistance comes at 2800 levels.


On a weekly chart, the stock has formed a bearish Marabozu candle, which suggests weakness in the counter. The stock has given a breakdown of the descending Triangle formation which points out further weakness in the counter. It has also tested an upper Bollinger Band formation and dragged lower, which suggest further profit booking for the upcoming week. A weekly momentum indicator RSI turned from the overbought zone and stochastic indicated negative crossover, which suggests some weakness for the near term. Downside support is at 630 while resistance is at 750 levels.


Bajaj-Auto has confirmed the Bearish Marabozu Candlestick pattern on the top which suggests trend reversal in the counter. Furthermore, the stock has shown distribution on the top, which points out weakness in the counter. In the recent week, it has shifted below the Ichimoku Cloud formation and 50-Days SMA, which suggests some weakness in the counter. Moreover, the weekly indicator MACD & Stochastic suggested a negative crossover that confirms the downside move in the stock for the near term. For the upcoming week, if the stock settles below the 3850 level, we will see some correction till the 3500 levels. On the lower side, support is at 3,850 levels while resistance comes at 4130 levels.

(The writer is Executive Director, Choice Broking)

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