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Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for indices despite mixed Asian cues

08:59 AM Aug 02, 2021 | FPJ Web Desk

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the inde with a 89 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 15,863 on the Singaporean Exchange around 7.30 AM.

The markets could open higher, despite mixed Asian markets today and despite negative US markets on Friday, said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

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The Nifty is expected to open with a gap up of 120 points at 15,880 , the next level to watch is 15,900 above which it can head to 15,950. The Nifty has support at 15,700 and 1,5730 levels. It has been trading in a range since last month and a breakout with higher than average volume will decide the next direction for it. Fresh longs are suggested on closing above 16,000," said Gaurav Udani, CEO and Founder, ThincRedBlu Securities.

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The benchmark equity indices once again failed to hold on to intra day gains on July 30 on the back of weakness in markets elsewhere. At close the Nifty was down 15.4 points or 0.1 percent to 15763. In the process the Indian markets outperformed its Asian peers having fallen the least. For the week it closed 0.59 percent lower.

Nifty has repeatedly run into resistance in the 15,862-15,899 band over the past six sessions. It closed lower for the second consecutive week, though by a small percent. However the lower shadows (area between the lows and close) are growing over the past three weeks, suggesting sharp recovery post higher selling pressure. How long such recoveries will continue is a moot point. The Nifty could remain in the 15,578-15,899 band in the coming week.

Asian markets mixed

Asian shares face another tough week as Beijing's regulatory crackdown fans fears about China's economy, though upbeat economic data in the United States and Europe and solid corporate earnings put a floor under their markets.

China's woes were underlined over the weekend by a survey showing factory activity grew at the slowest pace in 17 months amid rising costs and extreme weather. Japan's Nikkei bounced back 1.1 percent but that was from its lowest since January.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was a just fraction firmer early Monday, having hit its low for the year so far last week. Asian markets were largely mixed.

US stock indexes closed lower Friday, posting a weekly loss to close out the month, with renewed concerns about a rise of cases of the delta variant COVID-19 and disappointing results from Amazon.com partly blamed for the slump. But the benchmark S&P 500 index has posted gains for six straight months, its longest winning streak since 2018, and is only 0.6% off its record high set last Monday

For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 each declined 0.4 percent while the Nasdaq slid 1.1 percent. All three indexes were up for July, with Dow showing a 1.3 percent monthly gain, the S&P 500 rising 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq up 1.2% for the month.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng marked its worst weekly decline since February and its steepest monthly drop since October of 2018.

For the month, the US 10-year yield is down 20.4 basis points, the 30 year yield was down 16.9 basis points, and the 2-year was off 5.9 basis points. It was the largest one-month decline in yield for the 2-year and 10-year since March 2020.

The US Federal Reserve’s preferred U.S. inflation measure - PCE index rose sharply again in June and the increase over the past year remained at a 13-year high, raising the cost of living for consumers and casting a shadow over a strong economic recovery.

A final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index fell to 81.2 in July from a reading of 85.5 in June, though it exceeded the initial July figure of 80.8. Economists had expected a reading of 80.5, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.

Consumer spending rose 1 percent in June

Consumer spending rose a sturdy 1 percent in June, the US government said Friday. On Thursday, the government said consumer outlays surged almost 12 percentin June on an annualized basis, underpinning a strong economic recovery.

Led by a continuing low-base effect, the combined output of the eight core sector industries in India rose by 8.9 percent in June, as compared to a year ago. Core sector output had risen by 16.3 percent in the previous month of May, following a massive 60.9 percent rise in April. The data released by the commerce and industry ministry on July 30 showed production declined in just one out of the eight core sector industries - crude oil.

India’s Fiscal deficit for the first quarter of the ongoing financial year stood at Rs 2.74 lakh crore, or 18.2 percent of the budget estimate. Fiscal deficit for the quarter ended June 2020 was 83.2 percent of the budget estimate. It was 61.4% during the same period in 2019. Total revenue receipt during April-June 2021 was Rs 5.4 lakh crore, or 30.2 percent of budget estimate. During the same period a year ago, total revenue receipts were at 7.4 percent of budget estimate.

GST revenue for June, collected in July, stood at Rs 1,16,393 crore, an almost 25 percent increase over the preceding month, and 33% higher year-on-year.

China factory activity expands at slowest pace

China's factory activity expanded in July at the slowest pace in 17 months as higher raw material costs, equipment maintenance and extreme weather weighed on business activity, adding to concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy. The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in July (vs 50.8 forecast) from 50.9 in June. The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 53.3 in July, from 53.5 in June.

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